Markets & Financial Analysis

Tracking Central Bank Narratives with LLMs. Full Paper (with Biosca, Fulcrum Client Note, 2026)
A Post Mortem on the 2026 Oil Shock. Full Paper (with Davies, Fulcrum Client Note, 2026)
The Case for Reducing US Equity Overweight. Full Paper (with Roberts, Fulcrum Client Note, 2026)
The Transition to Warsh: Bumpy Road to a Better Place? Full Paper (with Biosca & Davies, Fulcrum Client Note, 2026)
US Employment: Breakevens, benchmarking and blindspots. Short Version and Full Paper (with Chiu, Fulcrum Client Note, 2025)
The Latest Evidence on Tariff Incidence. Short Version and Full Paper (Fulcrum Client Note, 2025)
US Tariffs and Uncertainty: A Structural Perspective (with Benigno & Tory, Fulcrum Client Note, 2025).
Global Bond Yields: Unravelling the Drivers of Recent Volatility (with Benigno & Tory, Fulcrum Client Note, 2025).
Trump’s Tariffs: A Challenge to the Global Economic Order and to Orthodox Economics (with Davies, Fulcrum Client Note, 2025).
Press Coverage:
Bloomberg (July 2025), FT Adviser (May 2026, Feb 2026, Nov 2025, Sep 2025), Institutional Asset Manager (Oct 2025), Investment Week (Nov 2025, Nov 2024, Jul 2024), Trustnet (July 2026; May 2026; also featured on Lloyds Bank and Halifax Investments; Jan 2026; also featured on Halifax Investments).

Policy Work

Costa Rica: Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review of the EFF & Second Review of the RSA (IMF Staff Report, 2023).
Costa Rica: the Neutral Rate of Interest: Revised Estimates (IMF Selected Issues Paper, 2023).
Outlook for the Western Hemisphere: Securing Low Inflation and Nurturing Potential Growth (IMF REO, 2023). BCP Press Release (in Spanish, Nov 2023)
Costa Rica: Fourth Review of the EFF & First Review of the RSA (IMF Staff Report, 2023).
Papua New Guinea: ECF & EFF Program Request (IMF Staff Report, 2023).
Papua New Guinea: Article IV Consultation and Review of the SMP (IMF Staff Report, 2022).
Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework for MACs  (IMF Staff Guidance Note, 2022).
BoE: Has the FOMC Increased Its Focus on Foreign Risks? (Bank Underground Bitesize Column with E. Iordanov, 2016)
BoE: Global Inflation: A Laboured Process (Bank Underground Column with B. Gilhooly and G. Kindberg-Hanlon, 2015).
[Videos]

Academic Work in Progress

Product Quality, Measured Inflation and Monetary Policy, 2023 (with Rodnyansky & Van der Ghote) [ECB Working Paper, 2022]
The Rise of Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson, 2023: [Full Paper – Coming Soon!]
The Impact of Large Scale Asset Purchases on Wealth Inequality, 2023: [Full Paper – Coming Soon!]

Short Topical Notes for Teaching

Optimal Covid-Contractions, 2020 [Full Paper]
What Would Be The Consequences of a “Sudden Stop” UK Current Account Reversal?, 2018 [Full Paper]